Til og med de globale makthavere begynner nå å ane hva som meget mulig kan
skje. Men merk den fortsatt forserte amerikanske optimisme (se siste del av
artikkelen). Der kvier man seg for å erkjenne at wall streets himmelhøyt
overprisede aksjemarked er en tikkende bombe, på tross av at t.o.m.
makthaverne ("eliten" som mediene kaller dem) i andre land nå snakker
åpent om dette. Se også min kronikk i KK nylig,
http://www.itk.ntnu.no/ansatte/Andresen_Trond/kk-f/fra011099/0694.html
Trond Andresen
>Financial Times January 29, 2000
>GLOBAL PROSPERITY: Economists find plenty to worry about
>
> Mother nature vied with the
> dismal science yesterday to
> cast gloom over this Swiss
> mountainside resort, as
> international policymakers and
> business people gathered to
> ponder the key trends in the
> world economy in the year
> ahead.
>
>
> While Davos laboured under its heaviest snowfall
> for years, pundits at the World Economic Forum
> sought something positive to say about the outlook
> for global prosperity after months of turmoil in
> emerging economies.
>
> Like the journey to Davos itself, that proved an
> uphill struggle. Warnings of further currency
> instability and stock market volatility alternated with
> concern about fragile economic growth and the
> risks of protectionism.
>
> One of the grimmest analyses came from Kenneth
> Courtis, Deutsche Bank's chief economist in Asia.
> He saw massive worldwide excess capacity in almost
> every sector of traded goods, dangerously big
> exposure by banks in industrialised countries to
> emerging market creditors and weak political
> leadership.
>
> The one hope was that national authorities would
> maintain economic demand by continuing to cut
> interest rates and, increasingly, taxes. But if they
> failed to do so, he said, "then it seems we are
> headed for the most vicious international trade
> environment since Smoot-Hawley" - the US tariff bill
> which triggered the 1930s slump.
(denne er typisk: "30-åras depresjon skyldtes proteksjonisme
i USA". Dette er en av de vanlige borgerlig-økonomiske bortforklaringer
av 29-krasjet og den etterfølgende depresjonen.)
>
> The trade tensions already emerging, notably
> between the US, Europe and Japan, are expected
> to be among the main issues on this weekend's
> agenda.
>
> Charlene Barshefsky and Sir Leon Brittan, the top
> US and European Union trade officials, who are
> embroiled in a bitter dispute over bananas, are due
> to have their first face-to-face meeting for several
> weeks here.
>
> Also in Davos will be Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's
> "Mr Yen", who this week caused a diplomatic
> incident by refusing to meet Richard Fisher, Ms
> Barshefsky's deputy, in Tokyo.
>
> The global impact of Japan's continuing domestic
> plight will also be in the spotlight. Rudi Dornbusch,
> the voluble US economist and commentator, said
> Japan's soaring public sector borrowing would in a
> few years condemn its government debt to
> "junk-bond status".
>
> There was also plenty of unsolicited advice for
> Brazil, the first emerging market casualty of 1999.
>
> Domingo Cavallo, Argentina's former finance
> minister, joined Mr Dornbusch in urging Brazil to
> stabilise its exchange rate by quickly establishing a
> currency board.
>
> Although the euro had made a good start,
> European economies still faced dangers. One of the
> biggest, according to Daniel Gros, head of the
> Brussels Centre for European Policy Studies, was
> that unrealistic wage demands in Germany could
> force a rise in interest rates in the euro zone.
>
> The one shining light amid the gloom was the US,
> where robust consumer demand continued to pull
> the rest of the world along.
>
> It was widely agreed that this depended vitally on
> Wall Street, where share prices were seen by some
> to have only a tenuous relationship with economic
> reality.
>
> There was less consensus, however, about how
> long that could continue. Mr Dornbusch believed
> the stock market would forge ahead until a rise in
> commodity prices pushed up US inflation and
> interest rates. But even then there was a good
> chance of a soft economic landing.
>
> Other speakers, however, believed that
> stratospheric US share price levels were much more
> vulnerable to unforeseen shocks - and that policy
> makers would be unable to prevent a sharp decline
> damaging the real economy.
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