I det siste har mye oppmerksomhet blitt rettet mot framveksten av en ny kald krig, i kjølvannet av bla. Kosovo- og Tsjetsjenia-krigen. Her er noen web-ressurser for interesserte:
Generell informasjon om Øst-Europa og tidligere Sovjet-unionen
Stratfors alltid interessante analyser over området:
http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/default.htm
http://www.stratfor.com/hotspots/caspian/default.htm
(mye om Tsjetsjenia i denne siste)
Stratfor dekker forøvrig også WTO.
Transitions Online (ifølge dem selv " the most comprehensive and authoritative source of information on Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union available anywhere"):
http://www.transitions-online.org/
Institute of War and Peace Reporting:
Bra og balansert dekning av krigsområder verden over:
Balkan:
http://www.iwpr.ac.psiweb.com/index.pl5?balkans_index.html
Kaukasus:
http://www.iwpr.ac.psiweb.com/index.pl5?caucasus_index.html
Sentral-Asia (kommer snart):
http://www.iwpr.ac.psiweb.com/index.pl5?centasia_index.html
Central Europe Review:
http://www.ce-review.org/
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Johan Galtung har skrevet en svært interessant analyse kalt
"The Double Triangle: USA/NATO/AMPO versus RUSSIA, CHINA and INDIA".
http://www.transnational.org/forum/meet/coldwar.html
Her beskriver han den globale situasjonen med utgangspunkt i at USA tar en knipetangsmanøver mot trekanten Russland/India/Kina ved hjelp av organisasjonene NATO og AMPO. USAs allierte rykker stadig tettere innpå disse landene, via Japan og via tidligere østblokkland og tidligere russiske republikker. Han hevder at det går mot et tettere forsvarssamarbeid på sikt mellom Russland, Kina og India, og at konflikten mellom India og Pakistan kan bli tonet ned på grunn av felles interesser i å stå i mot USA og Vesten. Omfattende og lang, men veldig interessant analyse.
Fredsbevegelsen og andre folkebevegelsers rolle i å få slutt på den forrige kalde krigen blir diskutert på:
http://www.alternet.org/PublicArchive/Tirman1119.html
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"It took something more radical -- more disruptive and normative -- to crack the ice of the Cold War. That disruption was brandished in the cacophonous demand for an end to the nuclear madness that resonated first throughout Europe and then quickly in the United States. It found a soulmate of sorts in the new Soviet leader, who somehow opened his mind to new ideas for disarmament and cooperation. That the peace movement stood at both ends of this triumph, creating a loud and persistent echo from West to East and back again, is one of the great achievements of the twentieth century."
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Den svært interessante artikkelen
From Jerusalem to Grozny: Replotting the Eastern Hemisphere's Pivot
http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/GIU/112299.asp
hevder at nye konfliktområder som Tsjetsjenia og Kosovo idag er viktigere for å forstå den globale situasjonen enn Libanon og Israel. Etter at Sovjet gikk i oppløsning flyttet frontene seg. Dette er viktig for å forstå den nye kalde krigen. Utdrag:
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"Draw a circle with a thousand-mile radius around Ankara, Turkey. That circle is the pivot of the Eastern Hemisphere. It is the crossroads of Europe, Asia and Africa, and the place where empires are made and broken. What would be minor elsewhere can be of enormous significance within this pivotal circle. During the 1980s, ancient feuds between tiny Lebanese clans had global significance. Today, hatreds in Kosovo trigger major powers to massive exertion. Following the retreat of the Russian empire, the area of significant instability has shifted to the west and north of Turkey. The Golan Heights has become globally insignificant. The futures of Grozny and Sarajevo have become vital. Understanding this is the key to policy making today."
(...)
"The last generation’s regional geopolitics were defined by the collision of the Soviet and American empires. At the end of World War II, the United States chose to defend Western Europe by building a defensive line surrounding Russia. The defense of Western Europe depended on a coalition stationing forces in western Germany. But Western Europe would quickly collapse if the Soviets were able to strike at its southern coast. The defense of the Mediterranean began by preventing Russia from accessing ports. Three nations were critical to this: Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey. In other words, the United States was forced to move into the pivot of the hemisphere to defend Western Europe – a classic case of being drawn into the pivot for reasons having nothing to do with any regional interest."
(...)
"Today, the global significance of that conflict has ceased, although it retains its regional importance. Following the Cold War, the grand geopolitics of the region changed dramatically, as the Russian empire retreated from its old frontiers. The withdrawal of Soviet troops from Hungary ended the threat of a Soviet invasion of Yugoslavia. Russia’s withdrawal from the Caucasus republics into the northern portions that rest inside of the Russian Federation ended the threat to Turkey.
Russia's collapse meant that Turkey, in the role it occupied from 1948 to 1992, was no longer relevant. With pressure released on its northern frontier, Syria and Iraq became the vulnerable countries. Syria was now sandwiched between Israel and Turkey. Iraq was sandwiched between U.S. forces to the south and Turkish and U.S. forces to the north, not to mention Iran to the east.
With the Soviets out of the way, the Arab-Israeli conflict ceased to be globally significant. Whether the Golan Heights belongs to Israel or Syria is interesting for the two countries’ residents, but not to anyone else. The Lebanese civil war ceases to represent a strategic challenge to the United States, but is instead a minor regional squabble."
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Oljeledningen som skal gå fra det kaspiske hav til Europa er ifølge mange vesentlig for å forstå krigen i Kosovo og konflikten i de tidligere Sovjetrepublikkene:
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/332/editorials/Perilous_pipe_dream_in_Asia+.shtml
http://www.mclink.it/assoc/fondpasti/nato/gerv-e.htm
http://www.canadianserbs.com/whywar/whywar_causeswar1.htm
http://208.138.42.193/forum/a3844db1d5707.htm
Øistein Holen
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