Artikkel fra The Guardian nedenfor. Overskuddet på det amerikanske
statsbudsjettet har lenge vært et (forsåvidt godt) argument for at
framtiden for verdensøkonomien slettes ikke er så nitrist som noen har
forsøkt å male den. Nå snur denne tendensen. Det er interessant.
Amerikanske forbrukere sitter langt over halsen med gjeld, mye fordi
myndighetene gjennom sin finans- og skattepolitikk har oppfordret de til å
holde forbruket oppe. En slump nå tror jeg vil kunne gå dypt, og Japan er
ikke i posisjon til å komme med en hjelpende hånd. - Per
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Bush tax cuts put US $51bn in red
Special report: George Bush's America
Heather Stewart and Jane Martinson in New York
Wednesday August 1, 2001
The Guardian
President Bush's $38bn (£26bn) tax rebate will force US government
finances into the red, the US treasury admitted yesterday.
In a u-turn from its previous forecast of a $57bn surplus, the
treasury now expects public finances to show a $51bn deficit over the
next three months, as the combined effects of the rebate and the
slowdown in the economy bite into Washington's revenues.
Treasury officials insisted the swing into deficit was a short-term
cashflow crunch. "We made a decision to implement an immediate
economic stimulus through tax cuts. These numbers simply reflect those
changes," said Tony Fratto, a treasury spokesman.
The news failed to dampen Washington's determinedly upbeat view of the
economy's prospects. Karen Hendershot, the treasury's acting director
of macroeconomic analysis, said that the fillip to public spending
from the tax rebate should add a full 1% to US GDP growth by the end
of the year.
"While we cannot dismiss the uncertainties about the progression of
recovery in the business sector, it seems plausible that the worst of
the slowdown may be behind us," Ms Hendershot said.
The US public are continuing to shop at a healthy rate in the face of
the economic slowdown, according to official figures. Consumer
spending increased by a larger than expected 0.4% in June, the
commerce department said yesterday, up from 0.3% growth in May.
However, a drop in consumer confidence raised fears that the public
will not continue to steer the economy clear of recession by spending
their tax rebates, as the treasury is hoping.
The confidence barometer published yesterday by independent researcher
the Conference Board, fell to 116.5 from 118.9 in June.
Almost 100m US taxpayers are set to receive an average of $300 each by
the end of September, as part of a package of tax cuts worth $1.3
trillion over the next 10 years.
A two-week delay in the payment date for corporate taxes from
mid-September, enacted after the budget estimates were made, accounts
for $28bn of the unexpected public deficit, by pushing receipts into
the next US fiscal year, which begins on October 1. "This particular
exercise in smoke and mirrors will cost the treasury more than $40m in
lost interest income," Louis Crandall, chief economist at financial
analyst RH Wrightson & Associates said of the measure.
Mitchell Daniels, the administration's budget chief, expects a surplus
of between $160bn and $190bn by October, but the bulk of this - some
$150bn - is the politically untouchable social security budget. The
congressional budget watchdog had previously forecast a surplus of
$275bn for this year.
Joshua Feinman, chief economist at Deutsche Asset Management in New
York, said: "I don't think it's the end of the big budget surplus, but
we've certainly seen the peak."
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