KK-Forum,
om de diplomatiske muligheter FØR bombestarten 24. mars 1999.
Knut Rognes
*************''
Published on Thursday, October 12, 2000 in the Colorado Springs Gazette
Clinton Had A Chance To Avoid Kosovo Bombing
by Alan J. Parrington
Now that Slobodan Milosevic has been voted out of office, many in the
Clinton Administration will be celebrating the 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia
as a completed moral victory. We were told after all, that the war was
fought for humanitarian reasons - to stop genocide and ethnic cleansing -
and that it was started only after all diplomatic efforts had failed. With
Kosovo free and Milosevic vanquished, the war is finally won. It was a good
war.
As the U.S. Air Attaché in London at the time, I saw a different war, one
not so flattering or altruistic. I saw a war of underlying motives, missed
diplomatic opportunities, misguided military strategies and questionable
outcomes. Worst of all, the war never need happened: Milosevic conceded
major U.S. demands two weeks before the war began.
On the evening of March 11, 1999, I was confronted by the Yugoslavian
Defence Attaché to the Court of St. James at a British diplomatic reception
and told, "Milosevic has decided to accept international, even NATO, troops
in Kosovo, but he must first have (a) letter from Clinton explaining the
benefits Yugoslavia will receive (in exchange)." I stood there silent,
somewhat dumbfounded, as the deployment of foreign troops had been the
sticking point in negotiations. The Serb colonel repeated his statement
verbatim, questioning if I had understood the import of his message.
"Yes," I assured him, "I understand perfectly, but what benefits are you
talking about?"
"I myself do not know," he answered, "But Holbrooke knows!"
Richard Holbrooke, author of the Dayton Accord on Bosnia, had been
shuttling back and forth to Belgrade trying to find a peaceful solution to
the Kosovo crisis. He had left Belgrade the day before to consult with
Washington and was due back in Yugoslavia that weekend. He apparently
carried with him a detailed brief of the Milosevic offer.
The timing, place and presence of other diplomats cut short my discussion
with the Serb, but by coincidence I had dinner with him at the home of a
fellow attaché a few days later. I asked if he had learned any more about
the benefits he had spoken of during our last encounter. "I can only speak
for myself," he answered, "but there are only three things Yugoslavia must
have: Yugoslavia must keep sovereignty over Kosovo, the terrorists (i.e.
the Kosovo Liberation Army) must be disarmed, and the referendum (on
independence for Kosovo) must be removed." It was apparently too much for
the Clinton Administration to accept as Holbrooke's shuttle diplomacy
failed and the bombing began March 24.
The war that was supposed to last three days ran into weeks, then months,
and had all the appearances of lasting well into the future when,
ironically, Russia stepped in and brokered a peace. The war ended June 10
with the United Nations accepting responsibility for Kosovo. When I read
the agreement, I was not surprised to see the three Yugoslavian demands had
been met or that each side had spun the agreement into a victory for their
side. Such is the nature of 20th-century politics. But I began to wonder
why it had the taken so much blood to come back to the same starting point
as before the war began. There were lots of explanations I reasoned, but
none that fit the scenario comfortably, save one.
I came to the conclusion - hypothesis really - that the war had not been
about humanitarian issues at all. Like most wars it had been about
politics. In this case, the objective all along had been to get rid of
Milosevic, Europe's last reigning communist, and whose virulent nationalism
had set the region ablaze, sending millions of refugees fleeing to the West
where they were not wanted or welcomed.
It was difficult to gauge when Milosevic became the target of the
administration's Balkan policy, perhaps as early as 1995 following the
debacle in Bosnia. State appointments and initiatives from that time seem
to support that theory. In any case, it all hinged on cornering the Serb
leader in a war he could not win and for whom capitulation or defeat would
spell disaster. Milosevic's Waterloo was thought to be Kosovo, his Achilles
heel to be bombing. This is where the strategy went awry.
It is one of the enduring myths of the 20th century that strategic bombing
will compel a weak power to throw in the towel and dump an unpopular
leader. In practice, the opposite has always been true and even the most
unpopular dictators have been made into national heroes by the symbiotic
logic that befalls strategic bombardment. Most American administrations,
captured by the omnipotence of their own polls, have been slow to grasp
this reality and have repeatedly reached for the strategic bomber or
missile as an easy way to avoid hard choices.
The Clinton administration was no different. Three days at most, it was
claimed, and Milosevic will be history. But in Yugoslavia, as in Iraq and
elsewhere, the bombing backfired and rallied disparate Serbian political
parties around a common foreign enemy. After 11 weeks of bombing, the
administration, running short of precision weapons and faced with the
prospect of a bloody ground war, abandoned the bombing strategy and asked
the Russians to broker a deal based upon Milosevic's antebellum offer. The
war achieved no more than was offered by Milosevic at the beginning and
only inflamed ethnic passions for generations to come.
It is a Pyrrhic victory to now claim that the bombing served its purpose.
Kosovo remains a part of Yugoslavia, the independence referendum has been
cancelled, ethnic cleansing continues (albeit reversed in terms of
nationalities), and NATO has been stuck with the impossible task of
disarming the KLA. As one KLA leader told me, "One day the Serbs will be
selling us guns to shoot at NATO!" Even new Yugoslavian President Vojislav
Kostunica has been quoted as saying, "We cannot forget what some countries
did to us last year during the NATO bombing."
Benjamin Franklin believed that there is no such thing as a good war, nor
is there a bad peace. Democratic forces brought about Milosevic's demise,
not bombs or bullets. Milosevic was widely hated before the war ever began.
Advocates of the Clinton doctrine might think on these dilemmas and well
consider the old sage's advice before launching any new moralistic
adventures. War is at best a necessary evil that should be invoked only in
the most extreme of situations. Getting rid of Milosevic was not one of them.
Alan J. Parrington, of Monument, Colorado, served as U.S. air attaché to
the Court of St. James in London during the Kosovo campaign. He retired
from the Air Force with the rank of colonel at the beginning of this year.
Copyright 1999-2000, The Gazette, a Freedom Communications, Inc. Company
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