...og oppvarmingen blir verre. Oppvarmingen av oseanene rett nord for
ekvator går raskere og raskere, og siden overflatetemperaturene her styrer
dannelsen av orkaner i tropene vil dette føre til flere av disse.
Korallrevene vil forsvinne i raskere takt, og siden disse lagrer varme, vil
også dette øke oppvarmingen. Endelig har en studie vist, at skydekket ikke
vil motvirke oppvarmingen som mange har trodd, skyer blir nemlig tynnere når
det blir varmere og reflekterer derfor mindre solstråling. Den globale
oppvarming vil derfor bli større enn hittil antatt.
Forskningsresultatene hoper seg opp i dyngevis. Hver dag bringer nye
meldinger om oppvarmingens farlige karakter, men det skjer for like døve
ører som alltid, ja kanskje enda døvere enn noensinne. Politikere og
næringsliv er fast besluttet på ikke å foreta seg noe med dette problemet
fordi det vil innskrenke profittmargenen på kort sikt, hvis man gjør det. På
lengere sikt vil den bli enda mer innskrenket når man intet gjør, men slikt
fatter ikke denne mennesketypen som kun er interessert i hva som skjer nå
med deres kontoer og fallskjermer.
Det er sikkert riktig hva Garvik sier, at avisene hos ham skriver mye
om dette. Men det fører til intet - intet skjer. Sannsynligvis er det også
allerede for sent å hindre katastrofene, men det er et rent hypotetisk
problem fordi intet vil bli gjort likevel. Viljen til intet å gjøre er
urokkelig.
Gjenstår for sansende mennesker av undertegnedes utdøende type å håpe på
et kort liv og avskjed før det blir for ille.
Også i høst kan vi følge den vanlige trenden i Norge og hele Europa:
temperaturene ligger nå rundt det dobbelte av normalen i Norge og enda mer i
østligere deler av Norden. I resten av Europa er vi også godt over det
normale. Over hele Europa har dette vært tilfellet siden midten av
september. I Amerika ligger som vanlig hele Nordcanada og Alaska høyt til
himmelhøyt over normalen. Samme i hele det nordlige Sibir.
Den klimatiske framtiden for Europa er mørk i den seneste modell-
simuleringen fra Det danske Meteorologiske Institutt. Middelhavsområdet
vil i løpet av de neste femti årene gå mot ørkenforhold, og i Skandinavia
vil årsmiddeltemperaturene øke med 3-5 grader, mest i nord og om vinteren.
Regn og storm vil det ikke bli noen mangel på, mens Nordpolen smelter vekk.
Mitt gjett: dette blir den første helt snøløse vinteren over store deler av
Skandinavia. Forbered dere på den hittil mørkeste vinteren i deres liv.
Undertegnede forbereder seg mentalt på det hvert evige år. Samtidig med
alt den øvrige faenskapen man skal "omstille" seg til. Det er som i KZ-
leirene, der var det også en evig omstilling til noe stadig verre.
Kanskje dette vil føre til en oppvåkning? Intet, absolutt intet tyder på
det. Flertallet er opptatt med Spicegirls, trashTV, Myggen osv.
Karsten Johansen
http://www.cnn.com/2000/NATURE/08/07/warming.ocean.enn/
Warmer tropical waters portend climate change
August 7, 2000 Web posted at: 11:56 a.m. EDT (1556 GMT)
By Environmental News Network staff
Since 1984, tropical waters in the Northern Hemisphere have warmed at a rate
of about 1 degree Fahrenheit per decade, according to data compiled by NOAA.
This figure is 10 times the global rate, a harbinger of climate change.
"If temperatures continue to increase in the tropical North Atlantic, many
of the coral reefs there (and their ecosystems) may be affected by
bleaching. Also, since hurricane development does depend on sea surface
temperatures, the conditions necessary for hurricanes to form may be
accentuated," said Edward Kearns of the Rosenstiel School of Marine and
Atmospheric Science.
Kearns and a team of scientists led by Alan Strong of NOAA's National
Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service analyzed sea surface
temperature data from the agency's polar-orbiting satellites from 1984
through 1996.
Analyses of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans show a significant
warming trend in tropical areas of the Northern Hemisphere, close to what is
known as the thermal equator.
"The most troubling finding is the marked increase in the tropical waters of
the Northern Hemisphere centered around the globe at a latitude of roughly 5
degrees north," said Strong. "If this trend were to continue, implications
for our coral reefs throughout these waters would be bleak."
Many coral reefs are found within the region of increasing temperatures, and
most of the reefs within these latitudes have experienced bleaching over the
past 10 years.
Bleaching damages corals and is a sign that marine life is stressed by a
number of factors. These factors include high water temperatures, pollution,
sedimentation, high light levels, reduced water levels and changes in
salinity.
"The oceans store an enormous amount of heat energy, and they act to buffer
any rapid climate change," said Kearns. "If there is any significant change
in the amount of heat stored by the oceans, this would effect global
temperatures."
Data also showed a warming in the equatorial Pacific, cooling in the central
North Pacific and general cooling the Southern Hemisphere.
"The oceans are not cooling or warming uniformly; there appears to be a
great deal of geographic variability," said Kearns. "When people usually
speak of global warming, they think of the entire ocean warming up or
cooling down. We don't have the accuracy yet to determine the magnitude of
the average global trend, but we at least are trying to point out the signs
of these trends."
"If these trends are real ... the extensive bleachings that our reefs have
experienced in the past two years would likely become commonplace," said
Strong.
Copyright 2000, Environmental News Network, All Rights Reserved
http://www.cnn.com/2000/NATURE/10/09/clouds.warming.enn/index.html
Clouds' role in global warming studied
October 9, 2000 Web posted at: 10:29 a.m. EDT (1429 GMT)
By Environmental News Network staff
If the current warming trend continues, don't depend on low-level clouds to
come to the Earth's rescue, according to NASA researchers.
A cloud's thickness and brightness (its ability to reflect sunlight)
influences how the planet heats and cools. Clouds can act as a natural
shield by reflecting sunlight back into space, creating cooler temperatures.
And clouds can also wrap the skies like a blanket, sealing in warmth.
But what's unclear is how clouds will react when the Earth gets warmer, as
it seems destined to do.
Some climatologists predict that a warmer atmosphere will evaporate more
water, forming denser and brighter clouds that will reflect more sunlight
back into space and cooling things off.
However, after three years of observations of low stratus, cumulus and
stratocumulus clouds over land, Anthony Del Genio of NASA's Goddard
Institute for Space Studies discovered that when air temperatures were
higher, clouds were thinner and thus less capable of reflecting sunlight.
These thinner clouds occurred regardless of weather conditions, season or
time of day.
"The bottoms of the clouds rise with warmer temperatures, while the top of
the cloud stays the same so the clouds become thinner," explained Del Genio.
"When low clouds are present, warmer air flowing over land tends to be
drier. As a parcel of dry air rises, it has to rise farther before it
saturates with enough water to form the cloud base."
And, Del Genio disputes a theory that rising carbon dioxide levels would
have only a slight impact on global temperatures because the theory doesn't
take into account real world cloud behavior.
"The minimum amount of warming predicted by scientists - 3 degrees
Fahrenheit - should be increased by at least 1 F as a result of the new
findings," said Del Genio.
The current range of 21st century warming, according to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is 3-8 F. The IPCC will release
its updated global warming assessment early next year.
Del Genio studied more than 3,000 individual cloud "snapshots" collected
between 1994 and 1997 at the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation
Measurement Southern Great Plains field station.
Using a unique system of ground-based and satellite instruments, each
snapshot recorded the air temperature, the height of the bottom and top of
the cloud, and the amount of liquid water in the cloud. The more liquid
water in a cloud and the thicker the cloud, the more opaque it is and the
more sunlight it reflects.
"We concluded that over more than half of the world, when the temperatures
were warmer, the low-level clouds reflect less sunlight, which will only
exacerbate global warming," said Del Genio.
The link between cloud thinning and temperature was initially observed in
1992 over much of the world with long-term satellite observations. George
Tselioudis, William Rossow and David Rind of the NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies published the observation using the NASA-funded International
Satellite Cloud Climatology Project database, a global composite of cloud
observations from international weather satellites.
"In the larger context of the global warming debate I'd say we shouldn't
look for clouds to get us out of this mess," said Del Genio. "This is just
one aspect of clouds, but this is the part people assumed would make global
warming less severe."
Del Genio and colleagues' research was published in the Oct. 1 issue of the
American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate.
Copyright 2000, Environmental News Network, All Rights Reserved
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