Why Milosevic won't get to the Hague

From: Knut Rognes (knrognes@online.no)
Date: Fri Oct 13 2000 - 14:42:10 MET DST

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    http://www.transnational.org/pressinf/2000/pf100MilosevicNoHague.html

    Why Milosevic won't get to the Hague

    PressInfo # 100
    October 11, 2000
    By Jan Oberg, TFF director

    Western politicians insist that Slobodan Milosevic must be brought to the
    Hague
    Tribunal and stand trial as a war criminal. Media and commentators raise
    the issue
    time and again. But there are reasons to believe that this is make-believe.
    The
    indictment of Milosevic leaves much to be explained - for instance, why he
    is indicted
    only for crimes committed in 1999 but not before - and certain Western
    countries
    would hardly want him to be on record in the Hague with a few things that
    he may
    know about them. The West would therefore do wise to drop this issue now
    and let
    Yugoslavia deal with Milosevic.

    It seems that few have bothered to read the text of the indictment of
    Milosevic and
    four other high-level government officials of Thursday May 27, 1999. Among
    other
    things it states:

    "As pointed out by Justice Arbour in her application to Judge Hunt, "this
    indictment is
    the first in the history of this Tribunal to charge a Head of State during
    an on-going
    armed conflict with the commission of serious violations of international
    humanitarian
    law".

    The indictment alleges that, between 1 January and late May 1999, forces
    under the
    control of the five accused persecuted the Kosovo Albanian civilian
    population on
    political, racial or religious grounds. By the date of the indictment,
    approximately
    740,000 Kosovo Albanians, about one-third of the entire Kosovo Albanian
    population,
    had been expelled from Kosovo. Thousands more are believed to be internally
    displaced. An unknown number of Kosovo Albanians have been killed in the
    operations by forces of the FRY and Serbia. Specifically, the five
    indictees are
    charged with the murder of over 340 persons identified by name in an annex
    to the
    indictment.

    Each of the accused is charged with three counts of crimes against humanity
    and
    one count of violations of the laws or customs of war."

    Limited indictment and dubious facts

    As will be seen, Milosevic is indicted for activities limited to the period
    January 1 and
    late May 1999, i.e. during the local war between Kosovo-Albanian forces
    (KLA/UCK)
    and various Serb/Yugoslav forces and for activities during NATO's bombings
    which
    started on March 24 and went on for 78 days.

    At the time the Tribunal could not know any precise facts or numbers. What
    we do
    know today from public, reliable sources is that a considerable part of the
    information
    about killings and ethnic cleansing was exaggerated or false. At the time
    of the
    indictment, facts could not be verified by independent sources as there
    were virtually
    nobody on the ground - except presumably intelligence people. OSCE observers
    have stated that there was nothing going on as long as the Verifier's
    mission was
    present (up to the bombing) that could be defined as a systematic ethnic
    cleansing
    campaign. Documents revealing the existence of the much talked-about
    "Operation
    Horseshoe" have not been brought to light.

    The wording is also doubtful. Sure, some were "expelled" - but how did the
    Tribunal
    know at the time who fled because of being expelled, because of rumours,
    because
    there was a local war, because NATO's bombs were falling, because Albanian
    leaders encouraged them, or because of some other reasons. Furthermore, it is
    extremely unlikely that 740.000 could be equated with "about one-third,"
    meaning
    there were way over 2 million Kosovo-Albanians alone in Kosovo, or almost
    2,4 in
    total. There are no data on any side supporting such a figure.

    Be this as it may, it is conspicuous that the crimes are limited in time to
    1999. It is
    highly likely that Milosevic could be charged with war crimes committed
    since 1991
    when the wars broke out in Slovenia and Croatia and 1992 and onwards in
    Bosnia-
    Hercegovina. However, this is NOT what the indictment focuses on. One would
    also
    believe that the Hague Tribunal investigators would have been able to
    collect more
    and stronger evidence, interview more witnesses and victims, and identify a
    larger
    number of bodies concerning the crimes committed earlier - and thus present
    a more
    solid indictment - than for crimes committed during the months and weeks
    when the
    Tribunals experts must have been writing the indictment and having much
    less hard
    evidence.

    It looks like the timing of the indictment could have been influenced by
    the situation
    and the following consideration: NATO's bombing would be somewhat easier to
    justify if the head of state at the time, the opponent whose forces NATO
    was trying to
    kill on the ground, would be considered a war criminal in the eyes of the
    world and,
    thus, made morally inferior.

    But how come the Tribunal did not indict him for what could well be much
    worse
    atrocities, including Srebrenica? One guess is that that would have created
    some
    difficulties for the West, the United States in particular. Milosevic was
    the strongman
    with whom Western diplomats had repeatedly met. They had done deals and made
    agreements with him. He was the only one in rump-Yugoslavia at the time who
    could
    "deliver" and guarantee stability, and his signature was on the Dayton-Paris
    Agreement of December 1995. His country was recognized as the Federal
    Republic
    of Yugoslavia, FRY, by powerful countries in the early months of 1996. He
    had been
    helpful by not reacting when the West assisted Croatia in driving out some
    250.000
    legitimate Croatian citizens of Serb origin from various parts of Croatia
    in 1995. As
    late as autumn 1998, Richard Holbrooke negotiated a cease-fire and withdrawal
    agreement with Milosevic - which he honoured while KLA/UCK moved into the
    areas
    from which the FRY Army withdrew. The obscure OSCE Verifiers' Mission was
    allowed into the country, Milosevic conniving at its heavy CIA element.

    In short, the other side of the Milosevic coin was pretty obvious: he was a
    man useful
    to the West, if for no other reason than that the West saw no one else with
    whom to
    do (better) deals during most of the 1990s.

    Who else could be indicted - and what about comparable crimes?

    Had Milosevic been indicted for crimes committed all through the 1990s, it
    would
    become impossible to not also indict Croatia's Franjo Tudjman (who
    everybody knew
    was seriously ill at the time but still running Croatia) and Bosnia's
    president Alija
    Izetbegovic, both of whom were commanders-in-chief of their respective
    countries'
    forces and from time to time appeared in uniform, something Milosevic did
    not. The
    point is not whether they can be judged as "equally big" or "smaller" war
    criminals
    than Milosevic; the point is that atrocities were committed by their side
    too, for which
    they should also be on indicted due to their military rank.

    If all the three guarantors of the Dayton deal would have been indicted,
    the legitimacy
    of that deal and the Dayton process would have evaporated. It looks like a
    politically
    tainted indictment produced on short notice. How could the West have
    indicted an
    ally who had "delivered" time and again.

    In addition, the mentioned 340 people killed is 340 too many, for sure. But
    make a
    comparison: NATO decided to give priority to saving NATO pilots' lives and
    conducted its raids from a height of 5-10 kilometers which - unavoidably -
    would
    cause "collateral damage". This was a deliberate choice: Yugoslav lives were
    considered less valuable than NATO lives and many more than 340 innocent
    Yugoslav citizens lost their lives due to this deliberately chosen and
    completely
    irresponsible policy of the alliance.

    Furthermore, 340 dead people during what was also a regular war between
    regular
    forces in the Kosovo province is, for an international comparison, quite a
    small figure.
    An estimated 100,000 had been killed in Algeria's internal conflicts while
    the same
    moral West turned a blind eye. Many more were killed in e.g. the
    Ethiopian/Eritrean
    conflict at the time. And one hardly wants to mention the at least 1000
    times higher
    figure of innocent Iraqi civilians who are the victims of a UN decision and
    the policies
    of the United States and Great Britain in particular.

    Karadzic and Mladic also unlikely to end up in the Hague

    As recent as October 8, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, repeated on
    CNN that
    she will continue to insist on Milosevic being extradited. On October 10,
    NATO's
    Secretary-General, The Rt. Hon. Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, stated that
    "we look
    forward to new policies being enacted by the new government to strengthen
    democracy in Yugoslavia and build cooperation with the international
    community,
    including on the issues of war criminals."

    This should be seen as part of a game. Why have Mr. Radovan Karadzic and
    General Ratko Mladic not been arrested and brought to the Hague? It is
    inconceivable that forces of the world's strongest alliance (an alliance
    that set out to
    quite systematically destroy a European state) should be physically unable,
    over the
    last five years, to arrest them.

    One can only speculate, but I believe it is likely that many in the West
    would feel very
    uneasy about a situation in which people like Karadzic and Milosevic would
    stand
    trial in the Hague and - cameras running - speak into a microphone about
    their
    deal(ings) with various Western diplomats, governments and envoys. They could
    probably offer spicy details as to what suggestions were made to them for
    accepting
    certain policies and playing certain roles at various points since 1991.
    They could
    probably also tell a few stories about how they cooperated with other
    ex-Yugoslav
    leaders, including friends of the West in the region, using double and
    triple standards,
    to fool the West and organizations such as the EU, OSCE and NATO.

    The issue begs another obvious question seldom asked by media: why have no
    high-
    .level Kosovo-Albanian military or political leaders been indicted? One must
    hypothesize that the answer is: because the West intervened on their side and
    because the UN and NATO/KFOR work intimately with them every day now.

    We have also conveniently forgotten that the War Crimes Tribunal statutes
    make
    clear that an indicted person shall be presumed innocent until proven
    guilty. While
    there are certainly very good reasons to believe that Slobodan Milosevic
    can be
    found guilty of a series of crimes, it is the Tribunal's norm that no one
    shall be treated
    as guilty before the Tribunal so judges. This point is repeatedly ignored
    by the press
    and by politicians who participate in the Hague Tribunal game. Also, why is
    the
    Hague Tribunal, financed and run as it is predominantly by the US, seldom
    seen in
    the light of the fact that the United States itself consistently refuses to
    sign the draft
    treaty on a new truly international criminal court?

    There are enough questions to be asked. One wonders why so few journalists
    - and
    law experts - do?

    Milosevic should be handled by Yugoslavia

    With the new leadership under Vojeslav Kostunica in Belgrade, Yugoslavia
    hopefully
    will move step-by-step towards democracy, accountability and a status as a
    state
    governed by law. As such, there are no reason to demand of it what neither EU
    governments, the US nor any NATO member would accept: namely that it should
    not
    be able to handle its own criminals the way they ought to be handled. There
    is, in
    summary, many reasons why Kostunica has said long ago and repeated now that
    Milosevic will not be extradited to the Hague. It's entirely understandable
    and does
    not mean that Milosevic will not be charged with crimes in his country.

    As Milosevic' actions probably makes a very good example of war crimes, it
    is a pity
    that the Tribunal made such a bad case out of it to the extent that the
    Tribunal has
    lost credibility. Somebody responsible for the Tribunal should come out
    with some
    good answers to the perfectly legitimate questions and issues raised here and
    elsewhere.

    The West would do wise to drop this untrustworthy "conditionality" now. It
    will only
    poison its relations with Yugoslavia. Milosevic was a dream bully who could
    conveniently be blamed for anything. That too presents the West with a
    considerable
    problem.

    Equality of all who are subject to a legal system is central to its
    integrity and
    legitimacy. There must not be one law for the powerful and another law for
    the rest. If

    the US doesn't see that point, the EU should. But one must fear that this
    issue will be
    just one among many around which new Yugoslavia and the West will clash in
    the
    future. More about that in the next PressInfo.

    © TFF 2000
    ******************



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