Så prøver jeg for fjerde gangen å få denne igjennom...
Det sentrale avsnittet i nedenstående CNN- artikkel lyder: "The studies are
consistent with findings from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. That group has predicted world temperatures could rise as much as 10.5
degrees or as little as 3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century.
In the Swiss study, climate modelers at the University of Bern, Switzerland,
projected temperatures would rise 7.7 degrees by 2100. The British study, done
at the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and the Rutherford Appleton
Laboratory, predicted a rise of as much as 12.4 degrees Fahrenheit in a
worst-case scenario.
By comparison, scientists estimate that the temperature difference between the
last Ice Age and today is only 9 degrees Fahrenheit."
Oppvarmingen blir altså større enn ved avslutningen av siste istid for
18000-10000 år siden. Dessuten langt raskere, 100 år nå mot adskillige tusen
den gangen. Det er sannsynlig at tilsvarende ikke før har inntruffet i all den
tid det har vært liv på kloden. Det burde mane til ettertanke, men det kan vi
nok ikke regne med fra de som bestemmer i dagens verden. Langt mindre fra
journalistene. At noe så sært som geologisk viten som ikke umiddelbart faller
i øynene som glamourøst og "interessant" for mediene skulle ha betydning, det
er en innsikt som i dag er fjernere enn noensinne.
Karsten Johansen
Studies: Global warming to worsen
April 18, 2002 Posted: 5:31 AM EDT (0931 GMT)
LONDON, England (CNN) -- Two new climate studies predict that global warming
by the end of the century will be even more dramatic than a United Nations
group has predicted.
But more important than that long-range outlook, said one climate expert, is
the data that both teams of scientists show for the years 2020-2030.
"These very different approaches both tell us that two to three decades from
now, it will be warmer than it is now," said Francis Zwiers, a statistics and
climate expert with the Meteorological Service of Canada.
A British study says that in those years the Earth will be 0.5 to 2.3 degrees
Fahrenheit warmer than the period between 1990-2000. A Swiss study predicts a
temperature increase ranging from 0.9 to 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit.
"In that time scale, we can do planning for changing fuel sources, so there
are less greenhouse gases," Zwiers said.
The two studies are detailed in the latest issue of the journal Nature.
The studies are consistent with findings from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. That group has predicted world temperatures could rise as
much as 10.5 degrees or as little as 3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the
century.
In the Swiss study, climate modelers at the University of Bern, Switzerland,
projected temperatures would rise 7.7 degrees by 2100. The British study, done
at the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and the Rutherford Appleton
Laboratory, predicted a rise of as much as 12.4 degrees Fahrenheit in a
worst-case scenario.
By comparison, scientists estimate that the temperature difference between the
last Ice Age and today is only 9 degrees Fahrenheit.
The U.N. study, published last year, concluded that "most of the warming
observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities,"
including gases from industry and automobiles.
Continuing over short term
But even if greenhouse gases were curbed immediately, warming would continue
over the short term, Zwiers said.
"The climate still hasn't come into complete adjustment to the gases emitted
during the last century," he said.
Climate prediction analysis involves complex computer modeling recipes, taking
into account the buildup of greenhouse gases, the role of oceans, uncertainty
about technological change, and incomplete knowledge of how the Earth's
climate has changed over thousands of years.
While there is general agreement among most climate scientists that global
warming is real, and that it is at least partially attributable to human
activity, some climate scientists sharply disagree.
The dissenters argue that the Earth has been in a long-term, natural cycle of
rising temperatures since the so-called "Little Ice Age" 500 years ago.
Further, they point out that many temperature monitoring stations are located
in cities, where heat-absorbing buildings and pavement can give misleadingly
high temperature readings.
Zwiers, an author of the U.N. study, said a warmer world could have a number
of affects on health. Even a couple of degrees could make some areas more
hospitable to pests and insects that carry diseases, he said.
http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/science/04/17/climate.change/index.html
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