World's weather hotter than ever
Temperatures in the south of England will resemble Bordeaux in France
by 2080, say scientists, and most of Britain will be snow-free
Paul Brown, environment correspondent
Thursday April 25 2002
The Guardian
The world was warmer in the first three months of this year than at
any time in the past 1,000 years, it was revealed yesterday, as
scientists released reports predicting British weather would get
rapidly warmer and more unstable.
Rising sea levels and storm surges threaten the south-east of England,
the latest research shows. It was disclosed that work had already
started on how to replace the Thames barrier and strengthen 100 miles
of sea defences around the Thames estuary, where the sea level could
rise by 86cm (3ft) by 2080.
The east of England is sinking at the same time as sea levels are
rising - the port of Immingham, in Lincolnshire, which faces a
damaging storm surge once every 50 years, can expect to be flooded for
nine years out of 10 by 2080 unless sea defences are raised.
The predictions of climate change for Britain, temperature rise, and
rainfall are the first since 1998 and far more detailed than any
released elsewhere. Hot summer days in the south would reach 40C
(104F).
Margaret Beckett, the environment secretary, said the situation was
far more urgent than previously thought.
"We thought we should plan how to deal with this for our children's
sake, now we realise we have to do it for ourselves," she said. "This
is happening in our lifetime and we must work to avoid these dangers
and threats."
Because of the carbon dioxide already released into the atmosphere,
climate change would continue even if we stopped emissions, although
this is presently impossible.
Winters will be mild and very wet with frequent flooding, and most of
Britain will be snow-free. Even the Scottish mountains will have 90%
less snow.
Summers will be far hotter and drier everywhere. Crops in the south
will have to grow with 50% less rain and need constant irrigation to
thrive.
The growing season may have to move to earlier in the year, as in
Mediterranean countries, because some crops may not survive the summer
heat.
Geoff Jenkins, head of the Hadley centre for climate change, which is
part of the met office, said temperatures worldwide in January and
March were the warmest recorded and the three month sequence was 0.71C
higher than the 1961-90 average.
"These are significant figures and together with other trends show
that global warming is really here already," he said.
The report, a joint venture by government and climate change
researchers, used computers to predict climate change for the UK based
on the latest measurements and research.
By 2080 temperatures will increase by between 2C and 3.5C, depending
on how much carbon dioxide is in the atmosphere, but inland in the
south, away from the cooling effect of the sea, this may be as much as
5C.
A very hot August, as experienced in 1995 when temperatures were 3.4C
above normal, will occur every two years in three in 2080, and may be
even hotter, the report says.
But while there may be bonuses for the tourist industry with weather
in the south resembling the Bordeaux region of France, it is bad news
for the water industry, which faces supply shortages. Summer soil
moisture may be reduced by 40% making life difficult for gardeners and
farmers.
But the winter rainfall will cause most problems. Deep depressions
with high winds are expected to dump up to 35% more rain on Britain,
leading to more frequent flooding. This combined with higher tides and
sea levels could cause severe disruption in the south where most of
the extra rain is expected.
· More on global warming at guardian.co.uk/globalwarming
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