Venezuelan President Near the Edge
http://www.stratfor.com/home/giu/archive/110101.htm
November 1, 2001
Summary
With both oil prices and his popularity falling, the
Venezuelan president's chances of staying in power for more
than year appear less and less likely. Even worse, a
rift is developing between the president and the country's
armed forces, and this could potentially lead to a coup
in the near future.
Analysis
In a recent speech to a small group of his supporters,
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said defiantly he
would rule the country until 2013, the maximum allowed
under the new constitution approved in 2000. But with
his support falling and opposition growing, it is
becoming increasingly likely Chavez will be forced out of power
within a year, possibly through a military coup which
many Venezuelans would support.
The pillars that upheld the Chavez regime for nearly
three years are already crumbling. Barring an unexpected
spike in oil prices, Chavez's popularity will collapse
in the coming months as the economy stagnates, and his
erratic behavior will increase his isolation at home and
abroad.
When the Chavez's presidency began in early 1999, the
stability of his regime rested on three things:
immense popular support, which topped 85 percent of
voters early on; high oil prices that peaked at $30 per
barrel last year (but which have since dropped to under
$17 a barrel); and the loyalty of Venezuela's armed
forces.
But it has been clear for some time now that retaining
the military's backing depends on Chavez's ability to
stay popular, maintain high oil prices and keep the
armed forces happy by dispensing promotions and higher
salaries. If he cannot do these things, the military's
loyalty will likely implode.
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