Se vedlagte artikkel. Folk i USA låner penger via meglerfirmaer for å kjøpe
aksjer. Samlet kreditt av denne type var $176.4 milliarder ved slutten av
august i fjor, $151.5 milliarder et år tidligere, og bare $31.5 milliarder i
februar 1990.
Denne type kreditt i USA var økt til vanvittige $265.2 milliarder pr. 25/2-00,
dvs. med (265.2 - 176.4) / 176.4 = 50% på et drøyt halvår!
Aksjekjøp på kreditt virker slik (forklaring på engelsk nederst):
Anta at du kjøper aksjer for 10000 $, hvorav 5000 $ er lånt via
meglerfirmaet. Praksis i USA er at
din andel av verdien av aksjeposten til en hver tid må være minst 25% av
dens totalverdi. Sagt på en annen måte: Aksjene må ikke synke så mye i verdi
at det lånet du tok opp for å kjøpe dem, øker til mer enn 75% av aksjepostens
verdi. (Dette minner forøvrig litt om det kjente prinsippet om at et 1.
prioritets boliglån ikke skal overstige - la oss si - 80% av lånetakst).
Anta at din aksjepost nå faller i verdi til 6666 $. Du eier nå bare 1666 $
av denne verdien, resten av verdien, 5000 $ , skylder du meglerfirmaet.
1666 / 6666 = 1/4 = 25% . Regelen overfor kommer til anvendelse: Nå utløses
det som i børs-språk i USA calles "a margin call", dvs. meglerfirmaet
forlanger at du skal betale tilbake lånet på 5000 $. Du må dermed selge
aksjeposten din for å betale lånet, og sitter igjen med max. 1666 $,
sannsynligvis mindre fordi prisene faller enda mer før du får gjennomført
salget. Og du har tapt mer enn 5000 - 1666 = 3334 $.
Det system-teoretisk interessante her er at et "margin call" leder til
*tvunget* salg; dette fører til synkende priser i større grad enn om "margin
calls" ikke hadde forekommet. Denne ekstra prisreduksjonsimpulsen utløser
enda flere "margin calls", og vi får en *forsterket* kjedereaksjon i forhold
til det "normale" og mindre dramatiske pris-ras man ville ha hatt uten et
kreditt-gjennomsyret aksjemarked.
Gjeldstyngede spekulanter og et skred av "margin calls" var karakteristisk
for sammenbruddet i USA i 1929. På tross av dette tillater altså
amerikanske myndigheter fortsatt aksjekjøp på krita.
Trond Andresen
*************************
>APRIL 10
>
>Margin-Debt Concerns Heightened
>
>By DUNSTAN PRIALAP Business Writer
>
>NEW YORK (AP) Last week's harrowing stock market selloff confirmed fears
>that the growing amount of debt held by investors who borrow money to buy
>stock known as margin investing can exacerbate a free falling market.
>
>But since stocks bounced back as quickly as they fell, little sentiment
>exists for new regulations that might prevent another domino effect of
>selling should a similar stock plunge occur in the future.
>
>Instead, market analysts hope the attention focused on margin debt in the
>wake of the turbulence will alert investors to the perils of buying stock
>on credit.
>
>``The definition of speculation is when investors borrow money to purchase
>overvalued stocks in the hope and prayer that those same stocks will
>become more overvalued,'' said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at
>First Albany Corp.
>
>If a big drop occurs, as it did last week, margin debt can ``turn a rational
>decline into something disorderly,'' Johnson said.
>
>Investors who had purchased volatile Internet and other risky
>high-technology stocks on margin needed to sell stock last week to cover
>so-called margin calls when the stock market began to plummet, which put
>additional pressure a sliding market.
>
>Margin debt has soared recently, jumping 50 percent in the last six months,
>as investors have borrowed money to speculate on volatile technology
stocks.
>
>On Feb. 29, total margin debt stood at $265.2 billion, up from $176.4
>billion at the end of August; and up from $151.5 billion a year earlier.
>In February 1990, the figure stood at just $31.5 billion, according to Ned
>Davis Research, a Venice, Fla., market data firm.
>
>Analysts have fretted for months that widespread borrowing would perpetuate
>a market slide when margin investors sold stock to pay off their loans
>during a decline. Those concerns were realized last week.
>
>``When the stocks that had gone up the most started going down the most,
>those are the ones that triggered the margin calls,'' said Sam Burns, a
>research analyst at Ned Davis.
>
>Margin calls are issued by lenders, usually a stockbroker, who want to
>ensure that the loans they make to investors are covered.
>
>Here's how it works.
>
>Investors borrow money to buy stock in the hope that the stock will increase
>in value. The stock purchased on margin is used as collateral against the
>value of the loan.
>
>If the stock goes up, the investor can use the profits to pay back the
>borrowed money plus interest charged by the lender.
>
>But if the stock price falls, thus lowering the value of the lender's
>collateral, the lender can make what's known as a margin call, which
>requires the borrower to put up more cash to ensure that the loan is
>repaid in full.
>
>Margin calls are usually covered by selling the stock purchased on margin, a
>dynamic that helped contribute to last week's sharp if brief selloff.
>
>Despite the scare, neither the New York Stock Exchange or the Nasdaq Stock
>Market have immediate plans to make it harder for investors to buy stock
>on credit. And officials at several major brokerage firms said no further
>restrictions were planned to curb margin investing.
>
>The Federal Reserve Board, which regulates margin borrowing, currently
>requires investors to have at least $2,000 in a trading account to buy on
>margin. In addition, investors are limited to purchasing $2 of stock for
>every $1 in their account.
>
>Most major firms, acting independently last year, made it harder to buy
>risky technology shares on margin by increasing the amount of money
>investors needed to put up in advance.
>
>Now, some are calling for an increase in so-called maintenance accounts, or
>the amount of money an investor must keep in an account to serve as
>collateral against stock bought on margin.
>
>The NYSE (New York-børsen, T.A.) and Nasdaq currently require that the
>portion of the account held with the investor's own funds be no lower than
>25 percent of the total value of the account. If it falls below that, a
>margin call occurs.
>
>For instance, an investor buys $10,000 in stock, with $5,000 cash and $5,000
>borrowed.
>
>A margin call could be expected if the value of the stock falls below
>$6,666. The investor still owes $5,000, but his cash stake in the overall
>portfolio has fallen below $1,666, or below 25 percent of the total value
>of the account.
>
>Mike Dunn, a spokesman for online firm Datek, said Datek has no plans to
>increase maintenance account requirements.
>
>Dunn said last week's selloff affected just a small percentage of investors
>who have purchased stock on margin. ``Investing in the markets has certain
>risks to begin with,'' Dunn said. ``When you buy on margin, you add to
>that risk.''
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