Her er en gjennomgang av den politiske situasjonen i Kroatia og i Tudjmans
parti, rett før det kommende parlamentsvalget i desember. Artikkelen er
hentet fra det siste nyhetsbrevet til IWPR:
http://www.iwpr.net/
Et raskt sammendrag av artikkelen:
Tudjman ligger på sykehus, og kjemper for livet. Offisielt dreier det seg
om mindre helseproblemer. Med Tudjman syk har HDZ (Tudjmans parti) splittet
i tre fraksjoner. Den første er ledet av Ivica Pasalic, presidentens
rådgiver, en viktig støttespiller for de bosniske kroatene, den andre av
viseordstyreren i parlamentet, Vladimir Seks, den tredje av den liberale
pro-europeiske utenriksministeren Mate Granic. Granic er populær i folket,
men har liten støtte innenfor partiet.
Parlamentsvalg er planlagt 22 desember, og det ser ut til at HDZ vil tape.
Det er uklart om valget vil bli respektert hvis HDZ taper, og om HDZ vil gi
fra seg makten:
"Tudjman was always vague on this point, but Seks is firmer. The HDZ, he
says will not simply hand over power to the opposition if it is incapable
of leading the country. Croatia is entering uncertain weeks and months.
Pasalic is no more trustworthy on this point. The post-Tudjman era has
already started.
Øistein Holen
-----------
THE PRESIDENT IN HOSPITAL, CROATIA ON THE EVE OF ELECTIONS
After weeks of denial and misinformation, the truth is out - Croatian
President Franjo Tudjman has been fighting for his life in the Dubrava
hospital in Zagreb for more than two weeks.
By Dragutin Hedl in Zagreb
In the ten years of his rule Franjo Tudjman did his utmost to ensure that
the new Croatia and the old Yugoslavia looked as little alike as possible.
Yet in the matter of his possible death he is recreating the peculiar
process of denial and deception that surrounded the passing of Josef Broz
Tito himself.
The medical team working on the Croatian president's case issues regular
updates on his condition, in just the way the dying Tito's doctors did 20
years ago. Then as now the party hacks feuded over the succession and the
right to govern a country riven by poor economic prospects and heavy
foreign debt (today some nine billion dollars).
US doctors established back in November 1996 that Tudjman was carrying an
otherwise inoperable stomach carcinoma, but Tudjman always refused to
acknowledge his condition in public.
Whenever the matter of his health came up, out came the official
deceptions. A rush operation on November 1 was described as minor treatment
for a torn intestine (diverticulosa) and did not mention the carcinoma at
all. In October, obviously weakened by his condition, he cancelled
appointments on a state visit to the Vatican claiming "tiredness and a cold".
A journalist who asked about his health was berated in public. "Be a normal
person," Tudjman snapped. "Don't be in a service of those who wish some
other Croatia and who are once again pushing it to the Balkans."
Tudjman's illness could not have happened at a more difficult time. The
country is working up to parliamentary elections scheduled for December 22.
The leadership of his ruling HDZ party is divided by factional squabbling
and its public image is at an all-time low. Defiance of the Hague War
Crimes Tribunal and his policy in Bosnia has threatened Croatia with
international isolation.
Tudjman held significant authority in his hands, but as he weakens so does
power. It is slipping into a vacuum. Parliament was scheduled to be
dismissed on November 12 ahead of the elections, though they have not yet
been formally been called. Only Tudjman can do this, and he has yet to do
so despite his closest associates' claim that "Tudjman is running the
country from the hospital".
The Croatian Constitution stipulates that, in case he is prevented from
carrying on his duties or in a case of his death, the speaker of parliament
takes over and leads the country for two months, during which time
presidential elections are held.
But the problem is much more complex in practice. Speaker Vlatko Pavletic
is a pale political figure with practically no influence in the ruling
party. The Constitutional Court is also in the process of being disbanded
to make way for a new bench of judges.
The Constitutional Court has already ruled that even if parliament is not
sitting, Paveletic's role will be unchanged if Tudjman dies, but the
possibility that neither parliament or constitutional court will be
empowered in what could be Tudjman's last days is ominous.
Without Tudjman's hands-on rule the HDZ has split apart, into three factions.
Ivica Pasalic, the President's powerful advisor, heads the first for
interior policy and informal successor of Gojko Susak, the late Defence
Minister. He is also considered the leader of the 'Herzegovina' lobby, the
supporters of the Bosnian Croats.
The second is headed by the shrewd Deputy Parliament Speaker Vladimir Seks,
and the third by 'liberal pro-European' Foreign Minister Mate Granic.
The battle between those three lobbies could determine the future of
Croatia over the upcoming months. Pasalic has no state function and
maintains his power through patronage. According to rumour, the present
Speaker might abdicate in case of Tudjman's death, in which case Seks would
routinely replace him and act as president ahead of elections.
Mate Granic enjoys the support of the international community and is one of
the more popular HDZ politicians in the country. But he has weak support
within his party and it is unlikely he would be nominated.
Up until the latest revelation, officials insisted that Tudjman's recovery
was proceeding well. Some officials even said he would be fit enough to
support the election campaign. Since being hospitalised, he has only been
seen by his family and his chief of office. Not one photo of him in his
hospital bed has been published.
The real test of his fitness must come before November 22. Parliamentary
elections, already scheduled for December 22, must be formally called a
full month before they are to take place, and only Tudjman can do it. If he
cannot, the constitutional court must formally rule him as unfit to govern
and the speaker must step in.
The public mood as traced by numerous opinion polls, suggest the voters are
ready for a change and if the elections are fair, the HDZ will almost
certainly lose power.
But will they recognise those results and decide to hand over power
peacefully?
Tudjman was always vague on this point, but Seks is firmer. The HDZ, he
says will not simply hand over power to the opposition if it is incapable
of leading the country. Croatia is entering uncertain weeks and months.
Pasalic is no more trustworthy on this point. The post-Tudjman era has
already started.
Dragutin Hedl is a regular contributor to IWPR in Zagreb.
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