Ny rapport om klimaendringer sier bl.a. følgende:
"A report by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) says global warming is
happening, and is probably already affecting the weather.
The report says human activities are at least partly responsible for what is
happening to the climate.
It expects more extreme weather as climate change intensifies, and says the
costs will outweigh the benefits.
It does not rule out the possibility of fundamental destabilisation of the
global climate."
Rene ord for pengene. Jeg gjentar: "Rapporten utelukker ikke en grunnleggende
destabilisering av det globale klima" og lengere nede:
"The authors say "a major additional risk" is the possible destabilisation of
the global climate "by fast, flip-flop changes" if any of several unlikely
things happens.
One is the stagnation of the ocean conveyor belt, which transports huge
amounts of warm water northwards in the Atlantic, warming northwestern
Europe by about eight degrees Celsius.
If too much fresh water enters the north Atlantic, the report says, "the
conveyor could stop within 100 to 300 years from now.
"The total shutdown of the conveyor will probably take less than 10 years.""
Altså: Et opphør av "Golfstrømmen" vil sannsynligvis ta mindre enn ti år.
Tygg litt på den.
Karsten Johansen
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_946000/946739.stm
Thursday, 28 September, 2000, 23:52 GMT 00:52 UK Warming climate 'means
worse weather'
Snow in Jerusalem - and the weather has more surprises in store By BBC News
Online's environment correspondent Alex Kirby
A report by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) says global warming is
happening, and is probably already affecting the weather.
The report says human activities are at least partly responsible for what is
happening to the climate.
It expects more extreme weather as climate change intensifies, and says the
costs will outweigh the benefits.
It does not rule out the possibility of fundamental destabilisation of the
global climate.
The report, a review of much of the recent literature on climate change, was
written for WWF by Pier Velinga and Willem van Verseveld, of the Institute
for Environmental Studies at the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam.
More frequent storms
They write: "We conclude with reasonable confidence that we are now
experiencing the first effects of the increase of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere.
"A further rise in the concentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to
further changes in the global climate.
"The consequences now expected are further rise of the mean global
temperature, an increase in extreme rainstorms, a substantial rise of sea
level, and changing ocean/atmosphere circulation patterns."
These would lead to "changing patterns, frequencies and intensities of
extreme weather events."
The authors are cautious on the causes of climate change.
They say: "The recently-observed series of extreme weather events must have
been influenced by the higher average temperatures.
"This implies that at least part of the damage caused by weather extremes is
due to human-induced climate change.
"We draw this conclusion with reasonable but not absolute confidence, as the
observed changes could, with low probability, still be attributed to natural
climate variability."
They say some regions will gain from changing weather patterns, while others
will lose.
"Climate change brings about a global redistribution of the costs and
benefits of the weather. The costs will be greater than the benefits, as
ecological and societal systems will have difficulty adapting.
"Global society does not have the instruments and institutions that could
help to compensate the losers."
The report concludes it is countries south of the equator, which have less
infrastructure to cope with the demands of disaster, that will see much of
the extreme weather.
Rapid change possible
It suggests these will probably include an increase in the frequency of
conditions like those caused by El Nino, the periodic temperature
fluctuation in the Pacific, with shorter and stronger La Ninas.
It expects that during the summer months southern Europe will become drier,
while the north of the continent will probably be wetter.
The authors say "a major additional risk" is the possible destabilisation of
the global climate "by fast, flip-flop changes" if any of several unlikely
things happens.
One is the stagnation of the ocean conveyor belt, which transports huge
amounts of warm water northwards in the Atlantic, warming northwestern
Europe by about eight degrees Celsius.
If too much fresh water enters the north Atlantic, the report says, "the
conveyor could stop within 100 to 300 years from now.
"The total shutdown of the conveyor will probably take less than 10 years."
Unlikely but worrying
Other contingencies it reviews include the collapse of the west Antarctic
ice sheet, which it says could cause a global sea level rise of between four
and six metres, and the release in a warmer world of carbon dioxide or
methane from soils and oceans.
It notes: "Destabilisation of the global climate has low probability, but
far-reaching consequences.
"As climate is a very complex and relatively unknown and unique system, one
should take such low-probability, high-impact phenomena into account."
The idea that humans are inducing rapid climate change is not universally
accepted among scientists.
Some researchers are not convinced the temperature records taken at the
Earth's surface in recent decades are accurate. They believe the rises seen
in the data could simply be the result of urbanisation - heat in cities and
towns might be skewing temperature trends.
This appears to be supported by satellite studies which show no warming in
the lower troposphere over the past 20 years.
The disparity between surface and satellite data was examined in a recent
report by the National Research Council of the National Academies, US. It
said a better system of climate monitoring was needed to ensure continuity
and quality in data collection.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/newsid_976000/976363.stm
Worse floods ahead as world warms
Southern Europe's infrastructure is devastated By environment correspondent
Alex Kirby
In south-east England, local people say the floods of recent days are the
worst for 40 years.
In the devastation of northern Italy, France and Switzerland, elderly
villagers say they can remember nothing like this happening in generations.
But there are common threads to suggest that both areas have the same lesson
to learn, and that their plight could soon become unremarkable.
The lesson is the folly of building homes and factories on flood plains, the
areas where rivers naturally overflow during heavy rain.
Worried
The spread of human settlement, of roads and steel and concrete, means the
floodwater has nowhere to go to soak away. So it inundates the buildings
that have invaded its space.
The Association of British Insurers is concerned that developers are
building on flood plains and then abandoning householders to the risk of
flooding.
It is urging the United Kingdom Government to intervene to prevent this
happening with the 3m new homes planned in England.
As flooding becomes more frequent, more properties are at risk than
previously thought. Yet there have been decades of warnings to central and
local government.
The Environment Agency says: "We are working hard to influence policy and
practice on development within the flood plain.
"The results of improved flood risk mapping show that nearly two million
homes, businesses and other properties in England and Wales are within the
boundary of the flood plain - the expected extent of flooding from rivers or
the sea.
"We are doing all we can to avoid this figure growing. Evidence suggests
that the results of our objections are having more impact and as a result
more applications are being turned down."
In southern Europe, the spread of homes and industry has had a similar
effect. And with towns and cities now invading the floodplains, the effects
ripple outwards, causing worse damage in the undeveloped areas where the
water is free to flow.
Certain
But what has happened recently could soon become relatively commonplace, if
it is an early sign of climate change. And not only environmental
campaigners believe that it is.
The ABI says: "It is now certain that global warming is occurring.
Furthermore, there is a reasonable consensus emerging that we are in for a
period of much more extreme weather, resulting in more severe and more
frequent floods."
Andrew Dlugolecki is director of general insurance development for CGNU, the
UK's largest insurance group.
He told BBC News Online: "You can say the floods in the UK and southern
Europe bear the fingerprint of climate change.
More frequent
"There are many other contributory factors - homes being built in stupid
places, for example.
"The floods are not unprecedented, but they are unusual. And I think they
will become more common.
"The latest work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirms
that the climate is having an effect on the insurance industry."
The insurance industry is hard-headed enough to base its decisions on money.
It is taking the threat of climate change seriously, wherever it occurs.
http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/d168826.htm
20.000 flom-evakueres i Nord-Italia
Over 20.000 mennesker ble tirsdag evakuert på grunn av flommen i
Nord-Italia. En mann og en baby ble funnet omkommet i Aostadalen.
Tallet på omkomne etter flere dagers regnstormer i Sveits, Frankrike og
Italia kom dermed opp i minst 19 mennesker. I tillegg er 27 fortsatt savnet.
De fleste har trolig mistet livet, men er ennå ikke funnet.
Po-deltaet Sivilforsvaret i Italia har satt i gang evakuering av til samme
20.000 mennesker fra områder i og rundt Parma og sør for Milano. Både Po og
dens sideelver har steget til rekordnivåer, og truer med å oversvømme nye
områder.
I Piacenza var Po 15 centimeter over 10.25-metersmerket fra rekordflommen
som rammet byen i 1951. I Parma ble innbyggere evakuert med båter og
gummiflåter, fordi husene deres var isolerte av vannmassene.
Skadeomfanget i Italia og Sveits er allerede anslått til 400 millioner
dollar - drøyt 3,6 milliarder kroner.
Gondo Po har sitt utspring i Alpene, der det kraftige uværet blant annet
jevnet store deler av den sveitsiske landsbyen Gondo med jorda sist lørdag.
Redningsmannskaper lette tirsdag etter en kvinne de trodde kunne være i live
under ruinene. Men de hadde ikke hørt livstegn fra henne siden mandag, og
sjansene for å finne henne i live ble vurdert som små. Ti mennesker er
fortsatt savnet etter jordraset i Gondo.
Flommen lammet også normal aktivitet i og rundt storbyene Milano og Torino,
fordi jernbanelinjer og motorveier måtte stenges. Flere byer og landsbyer
nord, øst og sør for Milano er uten drikkevann. Butikkene har gått tomme for
viktige matvarer, etter panikkhamstring.
Fiat-fabrikkene i Torino måtte permittere 15.000 arbeidere. En rekke andre
industribedrifter i regionen måtte også innstille arbeidet.
(NTB-AFP)
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