Kai Bråthen
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>
> BMD-List is a news service covering missile defense and
> special weapons issues. Special weapons news is archived @
> http://www.fas.org/news/
> BMD-List is an information service of Special Weapons Monitor
> http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/
>
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>
> * A MAJOR INTELLIGENCE FAILURE
> * ÆEXCERPTSÅ PRESS BRIEFING BY MIKE MCCURRY
> * ÆEXCERPTSÅ PRESS BRIEFING BY NATIONAL
> SECURITY ADVISOR SANDY BERGER
> * ÆEXCERPTSÅ U.S. Department of State Daily Press Briefing
> * INDIA / NUCLEAR
> * Text of Indian PM's nuclear test announcement
> * Disarmament Groups Condemn Indian N-Tests
> * INDIA TESTS THREE NUCLEAR BOMBS
> * Indian nuclear tests From: George Perkovich
> * U-S REACT / INDIA NUKE
> * US IS 'DEEPLY DISAPPOINTED' BY INDIA'S
> NUCLEAR WEAPONS TESTS
> * India joins club of 5 N-weapon states
> * President, PM congratulate scientists
> * US curbs likely; China, Pakistan reserve comment
> * New Delhi's compulsions for resuming N-tests
> * Trishul test-fired
> * India explodes three nuclear devices at Pokhran
> * U.S. disappointed, sanctions likely
> * `A repudiation of nuclear apartheid policy'
> * India entitled to conduct tests: IAEA
> * INDIA / NUCLEAR / GUJRAL
> * INDIA / NUCLEAR/ JAPAN REACT
> * INDIA NUCLEAR REACT
>
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>
> A MAJOR INTELLIGENCE FAILURE
> John Pike
>
> The comments by White House press secretary Mike McCurry
> and National Security Advisor Sandy Berger suggest that the
> Indian nuclear weapons tests represent a major intelligence failure.
> The US Government had no advance indication that the tests
> would take place, and as of Monday afternoon the National
> Security Advisor did not even have independent confirmation
> that the tests had taken place.
>
> Given the very high priority that is, or at least should be,
> attached to efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons,
> these are the wrong answers from the White House. While
> Indian denial and deception activities may have complicated
> the task of monitoring test preparations, the reaction from
> McCurry suggests that there was little if any indication
> from the intelligence community of a heightened probability
> of Indian nuclear weapons testing. The failure is not
> simply one of collection, which could be and apparently
> was frustrated by Indian denial and deception activities.
> The failure is also one of assessment, as analysis should
> have suggested a significantly increased probability
> of a test, and the probability of Indian measures to hide
> preparations for a test. This should have formed the
> basis for a sustained public diplomacy effort by the
> US Government to discourage India from testing
> nuclear weapons. But there is certainly nothing in the
> public record over the past several weeks suggesting
> that the Administration was actively working to strongly
> discourage such tests.
>
> Berger's late afternoon comment about the absence of
> independent confirmation is, if anything, more troubling,
> as it suggests that either such intelligence was not made
> available to the White House, or that Berger did not trouble
> himself to consult US intelligence reports on the subject,
> which surely were available so many hours after the fact.
>
> All of which confirms the proposition that the current
> organization of the US intelligence community to cover
> counter-proliferation issues is broken and needs to be
> fixed. This latest failure is in line with last Fall's mixup
> over allegations of Russian nuclear weapon testing,
> which took far too long to resolve Æthere was no testÅ.
>
> Those elements of the US intelligence community responsible
> for monitoring nuclear weapons and other proliferation
> issues are under-funded and poorly organized. Rather
> than remaining scattered among obscure corners of
> the government, they need to be brought together into
> a new National Special Weapons Intelligence Agency,
> which would provide the focus and visibility needed to
> avoid future intelligence failures.
>
> If adequate warning had been provided, the US government
> might have succeeded in convincing India not to conduct
> these tests. In the past, such warnings have discouraged
> other testing activities, and improved intelligence might have
> averted this latest episode, the last chapter of which has
> yet to be written.
>
> A special government commission is currently conducting
> a study of the organization of the US intelligence community
> to address proliferation issues, and the formation of a new
> National Special Weapons Intelligence Agency should be
> their first recommendation.
>
> Additional background information on the FAS proposal for
> a National Special Weapons Intelligence Agency is @
> http://www.fas.org/pub/gen/mswg/msbb98/tt08int.htm
>
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>
> ÆEXCERPTSÅ PRESS BRIEFING BY MIKE MCCURRY
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/980511-wh.htm
> THE WHITE HOUSE May 11, 1998
> "Q On India again, was the administration caught off
> guard by this underground test, or where there some
> imminent signs this was about to happen?
> MR. MCCURRY: It is my understanding we had
> no advance notification that the tests would occur."
>
> ÆEXCERPTSÅ PRESS BRIEFING BY NATIONAL
> SECURITY ADVISOR SANDY BERGER
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/980511-wh2.htm
> May 11, 1998 2:50 P.M. EDT
> " Q Is there any doubt on the part of the U.S. government
> that they did, indeed, test three nuclear weapons?
> MR. BERGER: We don't have any independent
> confirmation as of this point...."
>
> ÆEXCERPTSÅ U.S. Department of State Daily Press Briefing
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/980511db.html
> MONDAY, MAY 11, 1998
> INDIA Nuclear Test/US Reaction Possible US Sanctions
> Meeting Between Indian Ambassador and Under Secretary
> Pickering India's Relationship with China and Pakistan
> NPT and CTBT Treaties
>
> INDIA / NUCLEAR
> Voice of America 11 May 1998
> INDIAN PRIME MINISTER, ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE
> SAYS INDIA CONDUCTED THREE UNDERGROUND
> NUCLEAR TESTS MONDAY.
>
> Text of Indian PM's nuclear test announcement
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/980511-pm.htm
> 11 May 1998
> "Today at 1545 hours (1015 GMT), India conducted three
> underground nuclear tests in the Pokhran range."
>
> Disarmament Groups Condemn Indian N-Tests
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/980511-nuke4.htm
> (May 11, 1998, WASHINGTON, DC)
> Following the announcement today by recently-elected
> Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee that
> India has conducted three nuclear weapon tests,
> experts from a coalition of nuclear disarmament and
> non-proliferation organizations condemned the Indian
> government's action and urged restraint by India's
> neighbor, Pakistan.
>
> INDIA TESTS THREE NUCLEAR BOMBS
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/980511-pa.htm
> From: Bruce Hall at Peace Action
> What you can do- Fax the Indian Embassy!
>
> Indian nuclear tests
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/980511-nuke2.htm
> From: George Perkovich Date: Monday, May 11, 1998
> Bottom line: this is a very regrettable development, but
> it's one that India could turn into a positive step by signing
> the CTBT and making progress on the FMCT.
>
> U-S REACT / INDIA NUKE
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/980511-nuke3.htm
> Voice of America 11 May 1998
> THE UNITED STATES IS EXPRESSING DEEP
> DISAPPOINTMENT OVER THE INDIAN
> NUCLEAR TESTS, WHICH COULD TRIGGER
> U-S SANCTIONS AGAINST NEW DELHI.
>
> US IS 'DEEPLY DISAPPOINTED' BY INDIA'S
> NUCLEAR WEAPONS TESTS
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/98051105_tpo.html
> By Wendy S. Ross USIA 11 May 1998 --
> The United States is "deeply disappointed" by India's
> decision to test nuclear weapons, says President Clinton's
> National Security Advisor Samuel "Sandy" Berger.
>
> India joins club of 5 N-weapon states
> http://www.timesofindia.com/120598/12home2.htm
> 12 May 1998 The Times of India NEW DELHI:
> By conducting three underground nuclear tests
> simultaneously, India has formally joined the club of
> five nuclear weapon states. It has announced simultaneously
> that it will be joining the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,
> thereby foreswearing all further options to conduct tests.
>
> President, PM congratulate scientists
> http://www.timesofindia.com/120598/12home1.htm
> 12 May 1998 The Times of India NEW DELHI:
> India on Monday reaffirmed its nuclear prowess by
> conducting three underground tests in the Pokhran range
> in Rajasthan despite mounting pressure to abandon nuclear
> programme. The tests demonstrating a remarkable degree
> of sophistication in nuclear explosions were conducted at
> the very same Pokhran range where the country had
> carried out its first nuclear implosion in 1974.
>
> US curbs likely; China, Pakistan reserve comment
> http://www.timesofindia.com/120598/12home3.htm
> 12 May 1998 The Times of India
> The US administration may impose sweeping sanctions
> on India for conducting three underground nuclear tests,
> a state department official said on Monday.
>
> New Delhi's compulsions for resuming N-tests
> http://www.timesofindia.com/120598/12home4.htm
> 12 May 1998 The Times of India NEW DELHI:
> The reasons behind the resuming of nuclear testing are
> the continuing negative reaction of the United States
> to India's nuclear restraint since the 1974 test; the
> increasing threat from a nuclear-armed China intent
> on providing Pakistan with offensive capability against
> India; as well as the need to ensure that the Indian
> deterrent is safe and reliable.
>
> Trishul test-fired
> http://www.timesofindia.com/120598/12home5.htm
> 12 May 1998 The Times of India
> Trishul, the short- range triple-role missile, was
> successfully test-fired at the interim test range (ITR)
> at Chandipur near here on Monday, official sources said.
>
> India explodes three nuclear devices at Pokhran
> http://www.the-hindu.com/1998/05/12/front.htm#Story1
> The Hindu 12-05-1998 :: Pg: 01
> The Government would like to reiterate its support to
> efforts to realise the goal of a truly comprehensive
> international arrangement which would prohibit underground
> nuclear testing of all weapons as well as related experiments
> described as sub- critical or hydronuclear.
>
> U.S. disappointed, sanctions likely
> http://www.the-hindu.com/1998/05/12/front.htm#Story2
> The Hindu 12-05-1998 :: Pg: 01
> The fuller reaction of the administration will unfold in the
> next few days with the first comprehensive statements
> coming from the afternoon briefings at the White House
> and at the State Department later during the day. But
> the initial impression is that the administration has not
> really much of a choice on the subject of sanctions which
> are automatic and come into effect almost immediately.
>
> `A repudiation of nuclear apartheid policy'
> http://www.the-hindu.com/1998/05/12/thb05.htm#Story2
> The Hindu 12-05-1998
> For the BJP establishment, the underground nuclear tests
> are part of an overall strategy to tap the nationalist sentiment
> and, in its calculations, the country can be prepared to face up
> to sanctions imposed by the West.
>
> India entitled to conduct tests: IAEA
> http://www.the-hindu.com/1998/05/12/thb06.htm#Story2
> The Hindu 12-05-1998
> The United Nations atomic energy watchdog said on
> Monday India was entitled to carry out nuclear tests as
> it had not signed the international accords aimed at
> curbing the spread of nuclear weapons.
>
> INDIA / NUCLEAR / GUJRAL
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/980512-nuke.htm
> Voice of America 12 May 1998 --
> FORMER INDIAN PRIME MINISTER I-K GUJRAL
> SAYS HE THINKS INDIA WILL SIGN THE
> COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY, OR C-T-B-T,
> IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY'S NUCLEAR TESTS.
>
> INDIA / NUCLEAR/ JAPAN REACT
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/980512-nuke2.htm
> Voice of America 12 May 1998 --
> JAPAN SAYS IT IS CONSIDERING ECONOMIC
> SANCTIONS AGAINST INDIA IN RESPONSE TO
> NEW DELHI'S SURPRISE NUCLEAR TESTS
> ON MONDAY.
>
> INDIA NUCLEAR REACT
> http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/980512-nuke3.htm
> Voice of America 12 May 1998
> INDIAN NEWSPAPERS ARE PRAISING THE THREE
> NUCLEAR TESTS CONDUCTED BY INDIA'S
> HINDU-NATIONALIST GOVERNMENT MONDAY.
>
> @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
> John Pike http://www.fas.org/
> Federation of American Scientists 202-675-1023
> 307 Massachusetts Ave NE Washington, DC 20002
> "It is by will alone I set my mind in motion"