3. november kom det endelig en gledelig melding om Jugoslavia: Madeleine
Albright erklærte at USA hadde endret sanksjonspolitikk ovenfor landet.
Tidligere het det at sanksjonene ikke ville bli løftet før Milosevic gikk
av. Den 3. november, etter at frontfigurer fra opposisjonen i Jugoslavia
hadde vært i Washington, uttalte Albright at USA ville heve sanksjonene,
inkludert sanksjoner for flytrafikk og oljeembargoen, så snart Jugoslavia
avholder frie valg. Dette ville være av enorm betydning for den
jugoslaviske befolkningen, som lider under kombinasjonen av ødelagt
infrastruktur, knallhard økonomisk boikott og et autoritært regime.
Gleden var imidlertid kortvarig, for endringene ser nå dessverre ut til å
være rent kosmetiske. New York Times skriver 6/11 om saken og siterer
Albright der hun uttaler at hun er nesten helt sikker på at Milosevic ikke
ville vinne et slikt valg:
"I find it really, really, really hard to believe that Milosevic might win
a free and fair election," she said. "If my grandmother had wheels she
would be a bicycle."
http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/global/110699yugo-us.html
Videre i samme artikkel:
"Senior American officials said that if an election was not free and fair
-- essentially, one that the Milosevic coalition won -- then the sanctions
would not be lifted."
(...)
"...some European diplomats suggested that Washington's new strategy was
also intended to keep the oil and flight embargoes, which most members of
the European Union want to lift immediately. These sanctions were tied to
the Kosovo conflict, which is over, the Europeans say. By tying their
suspension to fair elections, Washington has tried to force the Europeans
to keep the sanctions indefinitely. "
(...)
"Washington is putting great stock in an opinion poll done for the National
Democratic Institute, an American organization, that many local pollsters
think is wrong about the likely vote that the Alliance for Change would
garner. Srdjan Bogasavljevic of the Strategic Marketing Media Research
Institute here, one of the country's most reliable polling groups, says
that his figures show Milosevic's party with about 20 percent of the likely
Serbian vote, the Alliance for Change with about 16 percent (half what the
American poll indicates), Draskovic's party with about 7 percent and
Seselj's party with 5 percent.
The crucial figure, Bogasavljevic said, is the "don't knows," who represent
33 percent of the electorate, while another 14 percent say they won't vote
at all. Of the "don't knows," Bogasavljevic said, most match the profile of
Milosevic voters, and 71 percent of them watch the state television news. "
Det ser altså ut til at USAs holdning er den samme som før - sanksjonene
vil bli opprettholdt så lenge Milosevic sitter ved makten, siden intet valg
vil tolkes som fritt før Milosevic har tapt det. Og Milosevic selv sitter
fortsatt trygt ved makta. Selv står han på valg først i 2001, etter å ha
sittet i en fireårs-periode. Eneste mulighet til å kaste ham før dette er
hvis et nyvalgt parlament stiller ham for riksrett.
Ifølge artikkelen i New York Times har regimet i Beograd forkastet
Albrights utspill:
"The Yugoslav government has dismissed a new American proposal for a
partial suspension of sanctions in return for early elections. It says the
offer would not be honored if the government of President Slobodan
Milosevic was re-elected. "
Den private etterretningsorganisasjonen Stratfor kommenterer også saken:
"Asserting the fact that there was a definite "right" and "wrong" vote
choice, Albright said, "We believe it is vital that the people of Serbia
understand that if they have the courage to bring down the walls of
repression that separate them from a democratic future, they will not face
that future alone." Essentially, the United States is calling for
democratic elections in which the victors are predetermined.
The United States has equated "free and fair" elections with the removal of
Milosevic. If the United States finds the elections were not both free and
fair, the promise to lift sanctions will be null and void. This finding
would be contingent upon the West, in the form of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), administering the election.
Even though the Serb opposition leadership expressed satisfaction with the
announcement, this is not a shift in policy. The United States is not
promising anything it has not in the past. It admitted that if Milosevic
were to win the election, the results would be suspect. The United States
is again only promising to lift the sanctions if Milosevic is out of the
picture."
http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c9911040200.htm
Alt er tydeligvis som før. Same shit, new wrapping.
Øistein Holen
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